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Kay spreads the word, not the virus

As a journalist with an engineering degree, Jonathan Kay ’85 told students at the May 15 School of Life online event at Selwyn House that he was was frustrated by the gap in practical information about how the novel coronavirus is spread in our society.
 
Researching the topic for Quillette magazine, where he is Canadian editor, Jonathan made his own analysis of reports from the pandemic to try to make sense of the sometimes contradictory advice coming from government and medical sources.
 
“I’ve tried to argue for a little more science in how we implement social distancing rules,” he said.
 
Jonathan was intrigued by an event known to epidemiologists as a “superspreader,” where an unusually large number of people are infected at a single public event. Most of these take place in an enclosed space filled with people engaging in any loud activity that involves singing, shouting or other vigorous vocalizing.
 
“Certain kinds of events are extremely likely to spread the disease, but a huge amount of behaviours remain fairly safe,” Jonathan told the students. He found the superspreader phenomenon occurred at religious gatherings, musical events, and curling bonspiels, but found no instances in movies, theatre events, or on air flights, where everyone is facing the same direction.
 
Students asked Jonathan whether young people need to observe social distancing, and whether it is safe for young people to play outdoors. “Generally, yes,” he answered, “but what are your behaviours?”
 
“Social distancing is more important than numbers,” he concludes, and any face-to-face gatherings should be avoided. An avid racquets player, he has deduced that squash is not safe, but tennis is. Bars and concerts, no. Parks, however, should be safe.
 
He was asked whether we should avoid joggers. “Part of this issue is managing anxiety,” he replied. “Unless someone gets in your face, I don’t think you’re at any risk.” Nevertheless, he said, “A person shouldn’t be getting close enough to you that a mask would be necessary.”
 
“Do you think things will go back to normal soon?” one student asked.
 
“No.” But, “Life will go on.”
 
Our current pandemic is different from historical plagues and pandemics, he pointed out. Our affluent lifestyle allows us to stay at home when necessary, and our technology keeps us informed of what’s going on.
 
“That’s a huge difference.”
 
The most important thing, he told the students, is to be intelligent, as well as candid about what kinds of people are most at risk. “The levels of risk are very, very different based on your comorbidities and your age.”
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